FOREX NEWS SURVEY - Economists Forecast a 2.00% Increase in November's CPI

Foreks - Foreks News inflation and dollar/TL survey has been concluded. The median monthly forecast by economists for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November is expected to rise by 2.00%, while the average forecast is 2.02%. Economists anticipate that the decline in annual inflation will continue in November. According to a survey conducted by Foreks News with 20 economists, the median forecast for the annual CPI data for November indicates a rise of 46.72%, while the average forecast is 46.77%. The expectations for the highest and lowest monthly CPI increases are 2.33% and 1.80%, respectively, while the annual predictions range between 47.22% and 46.50%. In October, the CPI data was announced at an increase of 2.88%, while a monthly rise of 2.53% was expected, with annual inflation realized at 48.58%. For the end of 2024, the median inflation forecast is 45.00%, and the average forecast is 44.97%. The highest expectation for year-end CPI in the survey was noted at 46.00%, while the lowest forecast was 44.10%. In the previous month's survey, the expectation was a rise of 44.19%, and predictions ranged from 48.50% to 44.00%. The median CPI expectation for 12 months ahead was found to be a rise of 28.20%. The maximum forecast was an increase of 35.00%, while the minimum prediction was 25.90%. CPI expectations for the end of 2025 indicate a rise of 27.00%, with the expectation range between 30.00% and 25.70%. In the previous survey period, the end-2025 forecast suggested an increase of 25.50%. Excluding energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, and gold, the CPI C Index experienced a monthly increase of 1.83%, with an annual expectation of 47.40%.

• Dollar/TL Rate Survey In the dollar/TL rate survey for the end of 2024, 12 economists participated. The median forecast was 35.2900, while the average forecast was 35.2776. The highest and lowest predictions for the rate were 36.0000 and 34.7110, respectively. In the October Foreks News survey, 9 economists forecasted the year-end dollar/TL rate to be 36.0000. Analysts' forecasts for the dollar/TL rate by the end of 2025 were found to be at 42.8750. Among 10 participants in the next year's rate expectation question, the highest prediction was 45.0000, and the lowest was 42.0000. In the previous month’s survey, the end-2025 forecasts were 44.5000.
• Economists' Expectations Ozan Can Türkmen, Head of Economic Research at Şekerbank, noted that they expect the decline in annual inflation to continue in November. He indicated that while food price pressures remain due to seasonal effects, the signs of stabilization observed in service inflation last month are expected to continue in the November data. He stated, "We believe that a better-than-expected outcome in service inflation could lead the Central Bank, which provided guidance on interest rate cuts in the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, to consider rate cuts in the December meeting. Therefore, we will closely monitor the outlook of both the headline and underlying components in the November inflation data." November inflation figures will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on December 3rd, Tuesday at 10:00 AM.
• Foreks News Inflation and Dollar/TL Survey Result Table: NOTE: Officials from relevant banks/institutions who wish to participate in the inflation survey organized by Foreks News Center can send an email to neslihan.koroglu@forinvest.com. WARNING: Survey data must be referenced as 'Foreks News'.