Headline: Economic Data Aligns with Expectations in the U.S., Accelerating Dollar Decline
Recent data regarding the U.S. economy provides significant insights for the third quarter, with overall trends largely aligning with expectations. The deflator index recorded a performance of 1.9%, surpassing the anticipated 1.8%. Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures for the same quarter came in at 3.5%, indicating a slight decline compared to the previous period.
Durable goods orders registered a revision showing a decrease of 0.4% in September, followed by a 0.2% rise in October. This suggests a recovery in certain areas of the economy. Excluding the defense and transportation sectors, there was an observed increase in orders, with defense orders up by 0.4% in October, while orders excluding transportation increased by 0.1%.
Unemployment data remains stable, with the number of continuing unemployment claims holding steady at 1.907 million compared to the previous period's 1.908 million. New unemployment claims were recorded at 213,000, maintaining stability similar to the prior period. The four-week average of unemployment claims also remained around 217,000.
Moreover, temporary auto and retail inventories increased by 0.1%, while temporary wholesale inventories saw a notable rise of 0.2%. The trade balance for goods improved, declining from -108.69 billion dollars in the previous month to -99.08 billion dollars in October.
GDP showed a growth rate of 2.8%, aligning with market expectations. The overall balanced outlook of the economy provides positive signals for the future, while the dollar index began to decline following the release of this data.
The dollar index exhibited indecisiveness in the range of 106.8 to 107.5 at the beginning of the week, but started to ease today after an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts in December, following the release of meeting minutes. The reduction in the dollar is also influenced by a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has alleviated geopolitical risks.
Following the release of today’s critical data concerning the U.S. economy, the decline in DXY has accelerated, dropping over 0.75% on a daily basis to reach the 106 threshold.