Automobile Demand Continues to Rise While Real Prices Remain on the Decline
Forex - According to the "Automobile Market Outlook" report prepared by the Bahçeşehir University Economic and Social Research Center (BETAM), based on the ads published on sahibinden.com, the demand for automobiles increased in October while real prices continued to decline.
The report, prepared by analyzing the data from October, indicates that the automobile demand index is 1.7% higher compared to September and 50.8% higher compared to October of the previous year. The ratio of the number of sold cars to the number of available ads, which is monitored as an indicator of activity in the automobile market, increased by 0.9 points to 22%. A closer look at this indicator reveals that the number of ads increased by 2.9%, while the number of cars sold rose by 5.5%. Additionally, the "closed ad age," which indicates the duration that cars for sale ads remained active, decreased by 1.8 days compared to September, averaging 20.2 days.
Real selling prices continue to decline.
When adjusted for inflation, the average real price of automobiles has been on a downward trend for sixteen months (Figure 1 - lower panel). The real price index decreased by 1.9% compared to September, reaching 156.5. The annual change in real prices remains negative (Figure 1 - upper panel). The change rate, which reached 47.9% in May 2023, has steadily decreased over the following months, dropping to -41.4% in June 2024. After this date, the annual decline rate in real prices began to decrease, standing at -33.6% in October. Compared to a year ago, the average real price is one third lower.
Figure 1: Average real price of automobiles (January 2020=100) (Lower panel), annual change in average real car price (%) (Upper panel).
Average automobile prices continue to rise moderately.
Average automobile prices have slightly increased compared to the previous month (Figure 2). The average price of automobiles, which was 880,318 TL in September, increased to 888,907 TL in October (Figure 2 - upper panel). The decline in the annual change rate of automobile prices has somewhat slowed down. The average automobile price decreased by 1.4% compared to the previous year (Figure 2 - lower panel).
Figure 2: Average automobile price (TL) (Lower panel), annual change in average price (%) (Upper panel).
Increase in automobile demand.
In July, we noted that the demand indicator might have shown a significant increase due to the post-holiday period and the campaigns launched by automobile companies in response to the new regulations from the European Union. Since then, the demand indicator has been in an upward trend, except for September. The automobile demand index in October rose by 1.7% compared to September, reaching 118.8. Furthermore, the automobile demand index is 50.8% higher than the same month last year (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Demand indicator (January 2020=100).
Both automobile supply and sales have increased.
The ratio of sold cars to available ads increased by 0.9 points compared to the previous month, reaching 22%. Analyzing the background of this increase, it can be observed that the number of available ads for cars rose by 1.3% (from 1,049,336 to 1,062,845), while the number of sold cars increased by 5.5% (from 221,329 to 233,440) (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Ratio of sold cars to available ads (%) (Upper panel), number of sold and available cars (Lower panel).
The closure age of sold cars has decreased.
On the other hand, the "closed ad age," another indicator of activity in the automobile market, has continued to decline. According to October 2024 data, the “closed ad age” decreased by 1.8 days compared to the previous month, averaging 20.2 days (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Closed ad age of cars for sale (Days).