Daiwa: China's GDP Growth May Slow to 4.5%

Daiwa analysts Patrick Pan and Yue Tan forecast that China’s GDP growth may slow to 4.5% in 2025 due to tariff risks and ongoing pressures in the real estate sector. Despite concerns that the Chinese economy is "Japanizing," Daiwa assessed that "China's position in the real estate market and its policy reserves are better than Japan's in the 1980s," although it is in a worse position regarding trade. Daiwa argued that while China can rely more on domestic demand during its economic transformation, it may still maintain its strength in manufacturing and exports. Analysts noted that the slow income growth of Chinese households, negative wealth effects from the real estate market, and high debt levels could limit China's recovery in consumption. Therefore, they emphasized that stabilizing the real estate market remains a prerequisite for the recovery of consumer confidence.